Cape Fear River at Lock 1, NC

The last 7 days and the forecast

NWS forecast issued Mon, Oct 12, 11:33 AM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.

Flood stages

What floods at each level

From the National Weather Service, highest first.

• 30 ftFlooding similar to Hurricane Florence in 2018. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded. Several roads near Kelly and Canetuck may be flooded. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
• 28 ftFlooding similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Highway 11 between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road near Kelly will be flooded. The Canetuck area may be flooded especially if the Black River is also flooding. The railroad between Navassa and Wilmington may flood as the crest works downstream and moderate or higher tidal flooding will occur at downtown Wilmington within a week of the crest at Lock 1.
• 26 ftHighway 11 will begin to flood between the Cape Fear River and Natmore Road. Other roads near Kelly and Canetuck may flood. Moderate flooding of swamps and low lands. Flooding similar to that reached with the remnants of Hurricane Hilda in 1964.
• 24 ft24 Water will top the lock at Lock and Dam 1 near Kelly. Widespread lowland flooding will occur along the river. North Elwell Ferry Road will be flooded on both sites of the river near the ferry landing.
• 20 ftNorth Elwell Ferry Road will likely be flooded north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.
• 19 ftNorth Elwell Ferry Road will begin to flood north of the river near the ferry landing. Lowland flooding along the river.

Highest crests on record

1. 30.68 ft — September 21, 2018
2. 28.58 ft — October 13, 2016
3. 24.92 ft — March 3, 1979
4. 24.9 ft — September 12, 1996
5. 24.77 ft — February 8, 1973

Recent crests: 23.92 ft (August 13, 2024) · 21.39 ft (April 13, 2023) · 21.1 ft (March 21, 2022) · 22.67 ft (February 20, 2021) · 22.04 ft (January 7, 2021)

Up and down the river, and nearby

• Black River near Tomahawk, NC
• Waccamaw River at Freeland, NC
• N.E. Cape Fear River near Burgaw, NC
• Big Swamp near Tarheel, NC
• Lumber River at Boardman, NC
• N.E. Cape Fear River near Chinquapin, NC
• Buck Creek near Longs, SC
• Waccamaw River at Longs, SC