S Toe River below Whiteoak Ck, 2 SSE Celo, NC

The last 7 days and the forecast

NWS forecast issued Sun, Dec 31, 7 PM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.

Flood stages

What floods at each level

From the National Weather Service, highest first.

• 26 ftRecord Flood Stage. Historic flooding is imminent across the S Toe River valley with floodwater levels similar to those during Tropical Cyclone Helene in 2024. Extensive, ruinous flooding is underway with numerous structures within the valley nearly submerged. The former Celo Inn is experiencing first-floor inundation approching 8'. Floodwaters exceeding 10' are impacting several roadways, including NC 80, Hannah Branch Rd, Seven Mile Ridge Rd, McDowell Ridge Rd, Halls Chapel Rd, and Blue Rock Rd.
• 19 ftMajor Flood Stage. Extremely rare and catastrophic flooding of the S Toe River is developing with disastrous impacts to property. Floodwaters are entering the first-floor of the former Celo Inn with imminent, ruinous flooding greater than 1' deep of several homes. Adjacent campgrounds and mobile home/RV parks may be experiencing devastating flooding greater than 4' deep, causing severe damage. Travel may be severely restricted with roadway inundation exceeding 3-4', stranding several residents.
• 13 ftModerate Flood Stage. Unusual, damaging flooding is developing adjacent to the S Toe River with considerable impacts to property and travel. Significant flooding reaching 4-6' deep is imminent for low-lying areas and crossings. Adjacent campgrounds may be experiencing dangerous inundation up to 2-4 ft deep, capable of moving RVs and other vehicles. Secondary roads, outbuildings, and crawl spaces/basements may be experiencing flooding reaching 2-4' deep. Some homes and businesses may be stranded.
• 10 ftMinor flooding continues. S Toe River floodwaters are approaching the road surface on the Seven Mile Ridge Rd bridge. Closure is likely imminent.
• 9 ftMinor Flood Stage. Common, deeper flooding of low-lying areas adjacent to the S Toe River is developing with lesser impacts to vulnerable property. More significant floodwaters are beginning to impact low-lying areas with inundation ~2-4 ft deep. Low-water crossings may be inundated with up to 2-3 ft of floodwaters. Adjacent campgrounds, secondary roads, and outbuildings may be experiencing flooding up to 1-2 ft deep. Flooding less than 1 ft deep may begin impacting primary roads, including NC 80.
• 8 ftAction/Advisory Stage flooding continues. Floodwaters are likely beginning to impact secondary roads adjacent to the S Toe River, including Hannah Branch Rd, Seven Mile Ridge Rd, and Halls Chapel Rd.
• 7 ftAction/Advisory Stage. Common, nuisance flooding of low-lying areas adjacent to S Toe River is beginning. Floodwaters are beginning to impact farmland, woodlands, nurseries, parks, athletic fields, golf courses, greenways, and boat-access areas with up to 2 feet of inundation. Low-water crossings may be inundated with up to 2 feet of floodwater and become impassible. Adjacent campgrounds, including the S Toe River Campground, and secondary roads may experience floodwater inundation of up to 1 foot

Highest crests on record

1. 26.06 ft — September 27, 2024
2. 17.41 ft — November 6, 1977
3. 15.5 ft — September 8, 2004
4. 11.62 ft — September 17, 2004
5. 10.85 ft — May 30, 2018

Recent crests: 26.06 ft (September 27, 2024) · 6.29 ft (May 20, 2020) · 8.97 ft (October 11, 2018) · 10.85 ft (May 30, 2018) · 4.83 ft (September 12, 2017)

Up and down the river, and nearby

• Catawba River near Pleasant Gardens, NC
• Linville River near Nebo, NC
• Ivy River near Marshall, NC
• Johns River at Corpening Bridge Rd, 6 NNW Morganton, NC
• French Broad River at Pearson Bridge Rd, 2 NW Asheville, NC
• French Broad River above Rollins Rd, 1 SE Marshall, NC
• Swannanoa River below Hendersonville Rd (NC 81), in Biltmore Village (2 S Asheville), NC
• Nolichucky River at Embreeville, TN