Tuolumne River at Modesto, CA
River level and flood forecast · Stanislaus County
The river is 18.0 ft below flood stage (55 ft).
Forecast to hold near 37.0 ft through Sat, Oct 17, 5 AM.
Flow: 225 cubic feet per second (USGS).
The last 7 days and the forecast
NWS forecast issued Mon, Oct 12, 7:45 AM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.
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An email when the National Weather Service forecasts Tuolumne River at Modesto to flood, when it floods, and when it's over.
Flood stages
| Major flood stage | 67 ft |
| Moderate flood stage | 66 ft |
| Flood stage | 55 ft |
| Action stage | 50.5 ft |
| Record crest (January 4, 1997) | 71.21 ft |
What floods at each level
From the National Weather Service, highest first.
- 67 ftExtensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
- 55 ftThis is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.
Highest crests on record
- 71.21 ft — January 4, 1997
- 69.19 ft — December 9, 1950
- 66.43 ft — December 25, 1955
- 65.42 ft — January 27, 1969
- 58.9 ft — February 22, 2017
Recent crests: 49.28 ft (December 22, 2025) · 41.52 ft (March 19, 2025) · 48.86 ft (March 3, 2024) · 54.61 ft (March 21, 2023) · 54.69 ft (March 16, 2023)
Up and down the river, and nearby
Not an official source. River levels, forecasts, flood stages and impacts are from the National Weather Service (MDSC1); flow from the U.S. Geological Survey. Readings are provisional. In a flood, follow your local officials and the NWS at weather.gov.