South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms, FL

The last 7 days and the forecast

NWS forecast issued Sun, Dec 31, 7 PM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.

Flood stages

What floods at each level

From the National Weather Service, highest first.

• 30 ftHistoric Flooding throughout the South Fork Creek Basin. Flooding renders Blanding Blvd in Middleburg and County Road 218 impassable.
• 28 ftWater reaches and begins to cross Blanding Blvd at County Road 218 in Middleburg.
• 26 ftCatastrophic flooding throughout the entire South Fork basin continues to expand. in Middleburg, water begins to flood several commercial properties south of Blanding Blvd. The first Baptist Church in Middleburg begins to flood. The approach to the County Road 218 bridge floods at this level.
• 24 ftThe approaches to the State Road 16 Bridge near Penney Farms floods at this level. Flooding expands and affects several residences along Becky Street. Retention and holding ponds north of FL-218 begin to overflow into adjacent wooded areas from creek water backing up into the area.
• 22 ftFlooding continues to worsen throughout the entire South Fork Basin. Homes along Saunders Lane and Elizabeth Lane begin to flood. Homes along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive, lightning Lane, and Thunder Road experience catastrophic flooding.
• 20 ftSignificant flooding of homes and property along the entire South Fork Basin begin. This includes property along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Thunder Road and other main access roads along the creek become impassable. Evacuations in low lying areas are expected.
• 17.5 ftFlooding begins to impact numerous homes and structures along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Access to homes will be cut off by flood waters. Evacuations in low lying areas may be necessary.
• 16 ftFlooding of low lying structures along Creek Street begins. Creek Street and driveways leading to Black Creek Drive become impassable. Movement of property to higher ground is recommended.
• 14.5 ftFlooding begins to impact low lying driveways and access roads along Creek Street, Black Creek Drive and Lightning Lane. Docks and other low lying property along the creek begin to flood.
• 10 ftShould water levels continue rising, preparations to protect property should begin. Water bgins to come over the bank in a few low lying spots near Black Creek Drive.

Highest crests on record

1. 29.36 ft — September 11, 2017
2. 26.33 ft — October 19, 1944
3. 25.21 ft — May 21, 1959
4. 23.68 ft — May 3, 2013
5. 22.71 ft — February 3, 1970

Recent crests: 16.86 ft (October 10, 2024) · 15.54 ft (August 6, 2024) · 15.28 ft (December 18, 2023) · 15.88 ft (March 12, 2022) · 15.33 ft (July 8, 2021)

Up and down the river, and nearby

• DownstreamBlack Creek at Middleburg, FL
• North Fork Black Creek near Middleburg, FL
• St. Johns River at Shands Bridge, FL
• Ortega River at Argyle Forest Boulevard, FL
• Julington Creek at Old Saint Augustine Road, FL
• Cedar River at San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL
• St. Johns River at Racy Point, FL
• Santa Fe River near Graham, FL