Ellicott Creek below Williamsville, NY
River level and flood forecast · Erie County
Normal1.8 ftas of Mon 4:15 PM
The river is 6.2 ft below flood stage (8 ft).
Forecast to hold near 1.8 ft through Thu, Oct 15, 8 AM.
Flow: 28 cubic feet per second (USGS).
The last 7 days and the forecast
NWS forecast issued Mon, Oct 12, 11:14 AM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.
Flood stages
| Major flood stage | 12 ft |
| Moderate flood stage | 10 ft |
| Flood stage | 8 ft |
| Action stage | 6 ft |
| Record crest (March 31, 1960) | 11.59 ft |
What floods at each level
From the National Weather Service, highest first.
- 12 ftMajor flood, widespread residential flooding. In Amherst, North Forest to Hopkins, Maple to French including Getzville. In Williamsville, Lehn Springs Drive. In Tonawanda, Ellicott Creek Road to Interstate 290, Colvin to Niagara Falls Blvd. In Cheektowaga and Lancaster, Aero Drive area, Bowmansville Fire Station area. UB bike path flooded.
- 10 ftModerate flood, extensive flooding in Ellicott Creek Park and minor flooding in surrounding neighborhoods in Tonawanda. UB bike path flooded and closed. Aero Drive, Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga closed. Flooding around Bowmansville Fire Hall. Areas east of North Forest from Maple to French Roads subject to sewer backups.
- 8 ftFlood stage, some flooding begins along Aero Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek Park. Little or no overall damage.
- 6 ftAction stage, high flows. No flooding.
Highest crests on record
- 11.59 ft — March 31, 1960
- 11.19 ft — February 25, 1985
- 10.35 ft — December 29, 2008
- 10.1 ft — January 9, 1998
- 9.94 ft — January 25, 1999
Recent crests: 8.64 ft (April 2, 2026) · 8.36 ft (February 19, 2022) · 8.75 ft (April 22, 2017) · 9.07 ft (November 26, 2014) · 9.68 ft (December 23, 2013)
Up and down the river, and nearby
Not an official source. River levels, forecasts, flood stages and impacts are from the National Weather Service (WILN6); flow from the U.S. Geological Survey. Readings are provisional. In a flood, follow your local officials and the NWS at weather.gov.