Tonawanda Creek at Rapids, NY
River level and flood forecast · Niagara County
The river is 10.7 ft below flood stage (12 ft).
Forecast to hold near 1.3 ft through Thu, Oct 15, 8 AM.
Flow: 55 cubic feet per second (USGS).
The last 7 days and the forecast
NWS forecast issued Mon, Oct 12, 11:14 AM. Forecasts change as rain falls and as upstream water arrives.
Flood stages
| Major flood stage | 16 ft |
| Moderate flood stage | 14 ft |
| Flood stage | 12 ft |
| Action stage | 10 ft |
| Record crest (April 1, 1960) | 16.96 ft |
What floods at each level
From the National Weather Service, highest first.
- 16 ftMajor flood, considerable residential flooding in most of North Clarence, North Amherst, Royalton, and Newstead. Widespread road closures. Ransom Oaks area in East Amherst is inundated with backwater into Ransom, Mud, Beeman, and other small creeks. Residential flooding and widespread road closures along the creek from North Amherst to the Alabama Swamps. Widespread farmland flooding.
- 14 ftModerate flood, some residential flooding with widespread road closures in North Clarence, east into Newstead and Royalton. Water begins to back up into smaller creeks such as Ransom, Black, Beeman, Gott, and Mud Creeks. Flooding in some low lying areas along Tonawanda Creek Road, Rapids Road, and Wolcott Road, with widespread farmland flooding.
- 12 ftFlood stage, lowland flooding of farm areas along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda Indian Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kelkenberg, and Tonawanda Creek Roads.
- 10 ftAction stage, some impact to low lying roads along Royalton and Newstead border, possibly impacting Fletcher, Kelkenberg, and Burdick Roads.
Highest crests on record
- 16.96 ft — April 1, 1960
- 16.38 ft — February 26, 1985
- 15.91 ft — March 7, 1979
- 15.46 ft — January 25, 1957
- 15.33 ft — January 10, 1998
Recent crests: 13.63 ft (April 3, 2026) · 12.89 ft (January 29, 2024) · 12.32 ft (February 26, 2022) · 13.93 ft (February 21, 2022) · 12.89 ft (January 8, 2019)
Up and down the river, and nearby
Not an official source. River levels, forecasts, flood stages and impacts are from the National Weather Service (RAPN6); flow from the U.S. Geological Survey. Readings are provisional. In a flood, follow your local officials and the NWS at weather.gov.